鍘熸枃鍙��锛歨ttp://www.stellariswiki.com/Crisis
铏�棌鍏ヤ镜锛�
10% chance of occurring about 121 years after game start
20% chance of occurring about 151 years after game start
30% chance of occurring about 201 years after game start
15% chance of occurring about 251 years after game start
25% chance of never occurring
锛�10%鐨勬満浼氬湪娓告垙杩涜�鍒�121骞村乏鍙冲彂鐢燂紝20%鐨勬満浼�151骞达紝30%鐨勬満浼�201骞达紝15%鐨勬満浼�251骞达紝鍙﹀�杩樻湁25%鐨勬満浼氫笉浼氬彂鐢燂級
鍥犳�铏�棌鍏ヤ镜鐨勫嚑鐜囧拰浣犱笌鍏朵粬AI鐜╁�鐮旂┒鐨勭�鎶€鏃犲叧锛屾瘡灞€閮芥槸鍥哄畾鐨勩€傚綋鐒跺�鏋滅垎鍙戜簡鍒�殑鍗辨満锛岀敱浜庝竴灞€娓告垙鍙�兘鏈変竴娆″嵄鏈猴紝鍥犳�铏�棌鐖嗗彂鐨勬�鐜囩灛闂撮檷鍒�0銆�
鎭堕瓟鍏ヤ镜锛�
At least 100 years must have passed since game start.
2000 year MTTH* for each empire with no jump drive technology (Jump Drive or Psi Jump Drive).
200 year MTTH* for each empire with one jump drive technology.
20 year MTTH* for each empire with both jump drive technologies.
20% less time if empire has completed Wanderlust event chain.
Mean Time To Happen
锛堣Е鍙戞潯浠讹細娓告垙寮€濮嬪悗鑷冲皯100骞达級
瀵规瘡涓�棦娌℃湁璺宠穬寮曟搸绉戞妧锛屼篃娌℃湁鐏佃兘璺宠穬寮曟搸绉戞妧鐨勫笣鍥斤紝澧炲姞2000骞寸殑MTTH锛堝叧浜嶮TTH鍚庨潰浼氳В閲婏級
瀵规瘡涓�袱绉嶈烦璺冨紩鎿庣�鎶€鑷冲皯鏈変竴涓�殑甯濆浗锛屽�鍔�200骞寸殑MTTH
瀵逛袱绉嶈烦璺冨紩鎿庣�鎶€閮芥湁鐨勫笣鍥斤紝澧炲姞20骞寸殑MTTH
濡傛灉鍙戠敓浜嗘祦娴�€呬簨浠讹紝鎵€鏈塎TTH鐨勬椂闂村噺灏�20%
鍏朵腑MTTH = Mean Time To Happen锛屾槸鎸囪�浜嬩欢骞冲潎鍙戠敓鎵€闇€鐨勬椂闂达紝鍦ㄦ�鐜囧�涓婂彲浠ョ敤鏁板�鏈熸湜鏉ョ悊瑙ｃ€傝繖鏄疨绀炬父鎴忛噷鍙戞槑鍑烘潵鐨勪竴涓��蹇碉紝姣斿崟绾�殑浣跨敤鐧惧垎姣旀柟渚匡紙濡傛瘡骞碭%鐨勬�鐜囷紝骞冲潎鍒版瘡涓�湀锛屾瘡澶╋紝杩樿�鍋氫竴绯诲垪杩愮畻锛屽苟涓嶆槸绠€鍗曠殑闄ゆ硶灏辫兘瑙ｅ喅鐨勶紝鍏蜂綋鐨勮�绠楁湁鐐瑰�鏉傝繖閲屼笉璇佹槑浜嗭級銆�
姣斿�200骞寸殑MTTH锛屾槸鎸囪繖涓�簨浠跺湪鐩稿悓鏉′欢涓嬶紝鍙��娓告垙寮€鐨勬�鏁拌冻澶熷�锛屾弧瓒虫�鐜囪�涓婄殑澶ф暟瀹氬緥锛岄偅涔堣�浜嬩欢鍙戠敓鐨勫钩鍧囨椂闂寸害涓虹�200骞村乏鍙炽€傝繖鏍峰�鏋滆�骞冲潎鍒版瘡澶╄�浜嬩欢鐨勫彂鐢熸�鐜囷紝鍙��鍋氱畝鍗曠殑闄ゆ硶灏卞彲浠ャ€備竴涓�200骞寸殑MTTH鐨勪簨浠讹紝娓告垙涓�瘡澶╁彂鐢熺殑姒傜巼鏄�1 / (200 * 360) = 0.001389 %銆備篃灏辨槸娓告垙閲屾瘡杩涜�涓€澶╋紝閮芥湁杩欎釜姒傜巼鍙�互瑙﹀彂杩欎釜浜嬩欢銆�
鍥犳�锛屽�鐖嗗彂鎭堕瓟鍏ヤ镜鐨勮�绠楀ぇ鑷村�涓嬶細
姣斿�涓€灞€娓告垙鏈�10涓�浗瀹讹紝鍏朵腑1涓�浗瀹讹紙璁句负A锛変袱绉嶈烦璺冨紩鎿庣殑绉戞妧閮界爺绌跺畬姣曪紝3涓�浗瀹讹紙B锛孋锛孌锛夊彧鐮旂┒鍑轰簡鍏朵腑涓€閽熴€傚叾浣欑殑鍥藉�娌℃湁璺宠穬寮曟搸绉戞妧銆�
閭ｆ父鎴忛噷姣忎竴澶╄Е鍙戞伓榄旂殑姒傜巼鏄�繖鏍风畻鐨勶細
鍥藉�A锛�1/(20*360) = 0.01389%
鍥藉�B,C,D: 1/(200*360) = 0.001389%
鍏朵綑锛�1/(2000*360) = 0.0001389%
涔熷氨鏄��锛屾父鎴忛噷姣忚繘琛屼竴澶╋紝閮戒細瀵规墍鏈夊浗瀹惰繘琛屼竴娆″垽瀹氾紝鍥藉�A姣忓ぉ閮芥湁0.01389%鐨勬�鐜囪Е鍙戞伓榄斿叆渚碉紝鍥藉�B-D姣忓ぉ鍒欐湁0.001389%鐨勬�鐜囪Е鍙戯紝鍏朵綑鍒欐湁 0.0001389%鐨勬�鐜囥€傚�瀛﹁繃姒傜巼缁熻�鐨勬潵璇达紝鍙�互鐢ㄥ嚑浣曞垎甯冪殑妯″瀷鏉ヨ�绠楋紙璁＄畻绗�竴娆℃垚鍔熺殑姒傜巼锛�
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